Elections are won and lost on predictions. Polls, pundits, and political operatives spend billions trying to forecast outcomes—and still get it wrong. Prediction markets, however, have consistently outperformed traditional polling. Now, Oddup brings that edge to everyone.
Oddup Markets is launching Politics—a new category where you can predict elections, policy decisions, and the power shifts that reshape governments.
What You Can Predict
Politics markets span the full spectrum of global events:
Elections — Will the incumbent win re-election? Will a third-party candidate cross a key vote threshold? Will a snap election be called? From presidential races and parliamentary battles to local referendums, Oddup lets you back your political conviction.
Policy and Legislation — Will a bill pass before year-end? Will a government implement a proposed tax change? Will a central bank governor be replaced? These markets focus on the decisions that directly move economies and industries.
Party Leadership — Will a leadership challenge succeed? Will a prime minister survive a confidence vote? Will a coalition government collapse? Internal party dynamics are often the most unpredictable—and the most consequential.
Geopolitical Alignment — Will a country apply to join a major alliance or trade bloc? Will an existing agreement be renegotiated or abandoned? These markets sit at the intersection of politics and global strategy.
Regulatory Action — Will a tech company face antitrust action in a specific jurisdiction? Will a country ban or regulate a key industry? These markets bridge politics and business—and are among the most actively traded worldwide.
Why Politics Works on Oddup
Political prediction markets have a proven track record. Time and again, they’ve outperformed polls, expert panels, and media forecasts. The reason is simple: when people have something at stake, they think more carefully about what they believe—and what they’re willing to back.
Oddup’s Maybe option adds a unique dimension. In elections where the outcome is genuinely uncertain—a three-way race, a tight referendum with no clear lead—Maybe lets you express that uncertainty as a position, rather than sitting on the sidelines.
How Markets Resolve
Political markets resolve based on official, certified outcomes—sourced from election commissions, legislative records, government gazettes, and recognised international monitoring bodies.
For policy markets, resolution is tied to formal enactment, official publication, or a confirmed announcement by the relevant authority.
How to Get Started
Politics is now live on Oddup. Whether you follow U.S. politics, European elections, emerging market governance, or global regulatory trends—there’s a market for your prediction.
Democracy runs on public opinion. Oddup gives that opinion a price.
Explore Politics markets on Oddup.
